Articles

A folder labelled 'Source of Funds' containing payslips, bank statements and CEX history beside a passport on a desk

Source of funds and AML for UK crypto baseball bettors

The check that does not care whether you are honest The phrase that took me a few seasons to internalise: an AML check is not designed to distinguish honest bettors from money launderers. It is designed to flag transactions that share statistical features with money laundering, and to require those flagged transactions to clear a […]
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A bankroll tracking spreadsheet showing unit sizing, drawdown and cumulative ROI across a season of MLB wagers

Bankroll management for crypto MLB betting from the UK

The discipline that beats a sharper model Two bettors. One has a moderately sound MLB model and rigorous bankroll discipline. The other has a sharper model and bets without size discipline. Across a long-enough sample, the second bettor goes broke; the first finishes the season ahead. I have watched this play out on the major […]
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A scoreboard showing the result of the first five innings of an MLB game with an F5 bet ticket alongside

F5 first five innings MLB crypto betting

The bet that isolates the half of the game you can model The thing I love about the first-five-innings market is that it strips out the part of an MLB game that is hardest to predict. Bullpens are the variance engine in modern baseball – the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings get decided by relievers […]
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A baseball strikeout sequence with a strikeout prop bet ticket showing over 7.5 K's at decimal 1.85

MLB strikeout props at crypto baseball sportsbooks

The prop where the model actually beats the line more often than not I run a small spreadsheet during the season that tracks how each prop type I have wagered on has performed against the closing line. Hit-a-home-run props are roughly break-even against close – the line has caught up with my reads, and the […]
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An MLB All-Star Game broadcast frame with a crypto sportsbook betting menu showing AL vs NL moneyline and props

MLB All-Star Game crypto betting

The night the markets stop pretending For most of the season the betting market on a baseball game is a serious financial product, with sharp money pushing lines toward fair value and a competitive trading desk on the operator side adjusting in real time. For one night in mid-July, that whole structure relaxes. The All-Star […]
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A decentralised prediction market interface showing MLB outcome shares trading on a blockchain orderbook

Decentralised prediction markets for MLB

The “is this even gambling” question The first time I traded an MLB outcome on a decentralised prediction market, I was not entirely sure what I had just done. I had not placed a bet with a sportsbook in any conventional sense. I had bought a token whose price would settle at one dollar if […]
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MVP and Cy Young trophy graphics with a futures betting board showing decimal odds for top award candidates

MLB MVP and Cy Young futures with crypto

The market that is half a sports model and half a guess at how journalists vote The first MVP futures ticket I ever cashed was on a starting pitcher who never won the actual award. The reason it cashed: the operator’s settlement rule paid on the player who finished top-three in BBWAA voting, not strictly […]
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A welcome bonus offer banner with terms and conditions in fine print displayed on a crypto sportsbook landing page

Welcome bonus wagering at crypto baseball sportsbooks

The five-bitcoin matched bonus that turns out to be worth £80 The first crypto sportsbook welcome bonus I ever claimed advertised “100% match up to 5 BTC”. My actual deposit was nowhere near five BTC; my matched bonus was correspondingly modest; and by the time I had cleared the wagering requirement, my realised value from […]
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A trading desk display showing a BTC price chart with hedge order panel and an open MLB bet ticket overlay

Hedging cryptocurrency volatility on open baseball bets

The bet behind the bet I had a wager land on a Wednesday afternoon – a five-leg same-game parlay on the Yankees, decimal coefficient about eight, stake of 0.05 BTC, settled return 0.4 BTC. The sport result was clean. The maths of the parlay had worked. By the time the funds had cleared and I […]
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An MLB postseason bracket showing ALDS, NLDS, ALCS, NLCS and World Series series formats with crypto bet slips

MLB postseason crypto betting

The same teams, a different game The first MLB postseason I tried to apply my regular-season betting model to was a disaster. I had spent the season building rules around the way managers handle starting rotations, the cadence of bullpen usage, and the third-time-through-the-order penalty, and within three games of the playoffs I realised every […]
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A NCAA College World Series fixture at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha with a bet ticket overlay showing decimal odds

College World Series crypto betting from the UK

The other June baseball event for a UK bettor By the time the College World Series rolls around in mid-June, the London Series is wrapped up, the MLB regular season has settled into its summer rhythm, and a UK bettor looking for a different baseball product to wager on has one of the cleanest options […]
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A spreadsheet calculating hold percentages across moneyline, run line and futures markets for an MLB game

Sportsbook hold and vig on MLB markets at crypto sites

The number that should be on every bet slip but is not Most bettors track the wrong things. They track the bonus offered, they track the speed of withdrawals, they track the user interface. The single number that should sit at the centre of every operator comparison – the embedded margin the book takes out […]
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An odds conversion table showing the same MLB moneyline in fractional, decimal and American formats

MLB odds in fractional, decimal and American

The same number, three different costumes I grew up reading betting odds the British way: 5/2, 11/4, 6/4, 13/8. The fractions have a rhythm to them once you have read enough. The first decimal-format coupon I ever encountered – a continental European football slip – felt like a different language, and the first American moneyline […]
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Two MLB starting pitcher cards side by side with annotated K/9, BB/9 and FIP statistics for matchup analysis

Starting pitcher matchup analysis for crypto MLB bets

The single biggest input nobody outside the betting community gets right Show me a casual MLB fan and I will show you someone who underrates how much the starting pitcher matters. Show me a betting line on a regular-season game and I will show you a price that almost entirely reflects the two listed starters […]
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A laptop displaying Statcast data overlays for a baseball game with a crypto sportsbook bet ticket alongside

Sabermetrics for crypto MLB bettors

The point of advanced stats is not to understand baseball better I went through a phase, several years into this, where I read every sabermetric primer I could find and absorbed all of it. Then I lost money for two months because I had been using the metrics to confirm that I understood the game […]
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Pitcher delivering the first pitch of an MLB game with crypto wallet UI overlaid on the corner of the screen

NRFI vs YRFI

The smallest market in baseball, and why I keep coming back to it The first proper money I ever moved on a crypto sportsbook went into a NRFI bet on a Wednesday afternoon Mets game I was watching at 8 pm London time. NRFI is short for “no runs first inning” and YRFI is “yes […]
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A self-assessment tax form on a desk next to a UK passport and a laptop showing a crypto exchange transaction history

UK tax on crypto baseball winnings

The tax-free win that is not actually tax-free The UK is unusual among major jurisdictions in that gambling winnings for individuals are not taxable. A friend of mine who has been backing horses for forty years has never declared a penny of betting income because there is no penny of betting income to declare under […]
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A passport, utility bill and bank statement laid out on a desk next to a laptop displaying a crypto sportsbook withdrawal screen

“No-KYC” crypto baseball sportsbooks

The marketing claim that quietly has a deadline attached to it Type “no-KYC crypto sportsbook” into a search engine and you get pages of operators promising frictionless wagering with no documents required. Read the small print on any one of those operators and you find a different story. The “no-KYC” claim is almost always shorthand […]
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Side-by-side comparison of a Bitcoin price chart and a stablecoin price chart with an MLB betting slip overlay

Stablecoin vs Bitcoin for MLB betting

The choice that matters more than which book you use A friend of mine put roughly five hundred pounds onto a crypto sportsbook in BTC last summer. He went on a decent run on MLB run lines through July and August and finished the run with what he thought was eight hundred pounds equivalent. Then […]
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A cryptographic hash visualisation overlaid on a baseball stadium broadcast screen with verification ticks

“Provably fair” at crypto baseball sportsbooks

The phrase that does not mean what the marketing wants you to think “Provably fair” started life as a useful term of art. A handful of crypto casinos in the mid-2010s built dice and slots games around a cryptographic protocol that let any user, after the fact, verify that the result of a spin or […]
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A mobile Lightning Network wallet showing an instant sportsbook withdrawal invoice with a baseball ticket in the background

Lightning Network for instant baseball sportsbook payouts

The withdrawal that landed before I closed the laptop I had a moneyline ticket cash on a Yankees game in the late innings. I tapped withdraw on the sportsbook, picked Lightning, scanned an invoice from my mobile wallet, and watched the funds appear in my wallet before the post-game show had finished its second commercial […]
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A multi-leg accumulator bet slip showing four MLB selections with combined decimal odds and stake field

Baseball accumulators at crypto sportsbooks

The bet shape British punters built football on, applied to baseball An accumulator – what the Americans call a parlay – is one ticket with multiple selections, all of which need to win for the ticket to cash, with the combined odds being the product of every leg. UK bettors grew up on accumulators in […]
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A pitch clock displayed on the outfield wall counting down behind a pitcher in his motion

How the MLB pitch clock changed crypto baseball betting

The rule that quietly rewrote half my model I had a totals model in 2022 that worked. By the end of the 2023 season the same model was leaking value, and by 2024 it was actively wrong on enough nights that I had to retire the version and rebuild from the ground up. The reason […]
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A live MLB in-play betting interface showing rapidly updating moneyline and totals lines mid-inning

MLB live in-play betting with crypto

The market that punishes a slow refresh button The first time I tried to live-bet an MLB game on a crypto sportsbook, I clicked “place” on a half-inning total over and the bet rejected because the line had moved between the moment I tapped and the moment the request reached the operator’s trader. I tapped […]
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A Commissioner's Trophy on a stadium podium with a cryptocurrency wallet displaying a long-dated futures ticket overlaid

World Series futures

The longest position you will hold all year I once held a futures ticket on a National League club for 197 days. The bet was placed on the second day of spring training, the team made the World Series, lost in five, and my ticket settled the morning after Game 5. Two hundred days of […]
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A Japanese NPB baseball stadium under floodlights with a UK time zone overlay marking morning hours

NPB Japan baseball

The league I learned to bet at breakfast Nippon Professional Baseball is the senior league in Japan and the highest standard of baseball played anywhere outside North America. Twelve teams across two leagues – the Central League and the Pacific League – a regular season of 143 games per club, the Climax Series in October, […]
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KBO League stadium in Seoul during a daytime fixture with a UK clock face indicating morning hours

Betting on KBO with crypto from the UK

The morning league I check before I have made coffee The KBO League – Korea Baseball Organisation – runs ten teams through a 144-game regular season from late March to early October, and for a UK-based bettor it is the most useful baseball product in the calendar that nobody talks about. First pitches commonly land […]
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A baseball arcing over an outfield fence into the seats with a sportsbook prop ticket overlaid

Hit-a-home-run prop bets at crypto baseball sportsbooks

The most popular MLB bet on the planet, and it is not the moneyline If you had asked me a decade ago which baseball market would end up the dominant one by handle, I would have said run line, totals, then maybe the moneyline. Hit-a-home-run was a novelty bet you placed on a Saturday afternoon […]
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Scoreboard showing a one-run MLB game in the late innings with a sportsbook run line ticket overlaid

MLB run line strategy at crypto sportsbooks

The line that looks boring and quietly does most of the work Show me a portfolio of MLB tickets that turned a profit over a full season and I will show you a portfolio with a lot of run lines on it. Moneyline gets the headlines because the price is fat on a heavy underdog […]
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London Stadium during an MLB London Series fixture with the diamond laid out across the football pitch and a packed crowd

MLB London Series

The only weekend each year I get to bet baseball at home The first time I went to a London Series fixture, I had a YRFI ticket on my phone, a pint in my hand, and the slightly disorienting realisation that the stadium was full of people who had bought tickets without ever having seen […]
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